Available for interviews at
European Job Market for Economists (EEA)
Allied Social Science Associations (ASSA)
Macroeconomics. Finance. Behavioural Economics. Household Finance.
Vladimir Asriyan (Advisor) [email protected]
Alberto Martin(Advisor) [email protected]
"Credit Market Experiences and Macroeconomic Expectations: Evidence and Theory" (Job Market Paper)
Using the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations, I show that people experiencing credit rejections are too pessimistic about US credit markets, inflation, unemployment, and stock prices. This finding challenges standard experience-effects, which are assumed to be domain specific, and has important economic implications. Using an associative memory model of belief formation I show, theoretically and empirically, that reliance on personal past rejections creates: i) systematic belief heterogeneity across age and other socio-economic groups, and ii) overreaction of average beliefs during recessions. Incorporating these findings into a consumption-saving model and using data on planned durable consumption, I show that 12% of the total negative impact of rejections on planned consumption results solely from the pessimism bias. Finally, I show that this effect is particularly pronounced among younger and low socio-economic status individuals, and during economic downturns, leading to amplified contractions in aggregate demand.
Research in Progress
“Households' Economic Experiences, Memory and Expectations: Insights from a Survey Experiment"
"Asset Prices and Beliefs Disagreement through Learning from Experience"
"Mortgage Choice and Inflation Experiences in the Euro Area"(with B. Szabó)
Households' mortgage choice in the euro zone shows considerable heterogeneity, both across and within country. The persistence of different preferences when choosing between an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) versus a fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) two decades after introducing a common currency is a puzzle. We argue that these patterns can be explained by the long-lasting effect of personal experiences of high-inflation periods prior to joining the euro zone. Using representative micro-data of 9 countries from the Eurosystem’s Household Finance and Consumption Survey, we show that past exposure to higher inflation predicts significantly lower probability of holding an FRM. The sign of the result is the opposite of what have recently been found in the US. We link our results to the theoretical literature on households’ risk management in mortgage financing decisions and argue that prepayment penalties in the euro zone increase the inflation risk (i.e. the uncertainty of real payments) of an FRM. In line with this, we provide evidence that personal inflation experiences affect risk attitudes: households that experienced high and volatile inflation report lower willingness to take financial risk.