Contact Information

[email protected]

Personal Webpage

Available for interviews at

European Job Market for Economists (EEA)
Allied Social Science Associations (ASSA)

 

CV                         Job Market Paper

 

Research Interests

Econometrics and Macroeconomics

Placement Officer

Edouard Schaal
[email protected]

References

Christian Brownlees (Advisor)
[email protected]

Andrea Caggese (Advisor)
[email protected]

Daniel Kapp
[email protected]

Research

Identifying  Unconditional Quantile Impulse Responses with an Application to Growth-at-Risk  (Job Market Paper) 

I introduce generalized quantile local projections (GQLP), a novel methodology for identifying structural quantile impulse responses that explicitly distinguishes treatment from control variables. Unlike existing methods that estimate conditional quantile effects, GQLP identifies causal effects on unconditional quantiles while still exploiting controls for identification. This distinction is crucial for studying growth-at-risk, as unconditionally low growth rates correspond to actual downturns rather than merely periods of disappointing growth performance relative to prevailing conditions. I develop a general simulation algorithm to recover true structural quantile responses in analytically intractable models. I conduct Monte Carlo experiments demonstrating that GQLP successfully recovers structural quantile impulse responses, whereas conventional conditional quantile methods can yield misleading conclusions in the presence of control variables even when the true structural shock is observed. Applying GQLP to study the effects of financial shocks on U.S. industrial production growth, I find that both credit risk and volatility shocks have substantially larger impacts on downside risk than on median or upside outcomes. A one-standard-deviation financial shock reduces the 10th quantile of growth by approximately 1.5-2 percentage points compared to only 0.5 percentage points for median growth. These asymmetric effects suggest that stabilizing financial conditions can help prevent painful recessions without sacrificing growth during expansions.

Working Papers

Unlocking Growth? EU Investment Programmes and Firm Performance (with Alessandro De Sanctis, Francesca Vinci and Daniel Kapp)
 

New Stylised Facts on Firms and Productivity Dynamics (with Andrea Caggese, Madalena Gaspar and Carolina Villegas-Sánchez)


Research Statement