4/11/2025 - DemoSoc Seminar: Measuring the Scale of Loss: Life Expectancy and Conflict Mortality in Gaza
4/11/2025 - DemoSoc Seminar: Measuring the Scale of Loss: Life Expectancy and Conflict Mortality in Gaza
4/11/2025 - DemoSoc Seminar: Measuring the Scale of Loss: Life Expectancy and Conflict Mortality in Gaza
22.10.2025
The DemoSoc seminars at Universitat Pompeu Fabra aims to gather all researchers at UPF and beyond working on the fields of demography and sociology (social stratification).
Next DemoSoc Seminar of this course will take place on:
November, 4th
12.00 h
40.257 Roger de Llúria Building
Measuring the Scale of Loss: Life Expectancy and Conflict Mortality in Gaza
Enrique Acosta, Centre d'Estudis Demogràfics (CED)
Abstract:
The war in Gaza has produced one of the steepest short-term reversals in population health on record. Building on our recently published work, we update life expectancy (LE) and mortality through December 2024 and extend results to September 2025 using the same transparent, reproducible framework and updated casualty series. In the first year of the war (October 2023–September 2024), LE at birth in Gaza fell to 29.3 years (26.8–31.7), a 62% loss relative to a no-conflict counterfactual. By December 31, 2024, we estimate 78,318 conflict deaths (70,614–87,504) and a 14-fold increase in all-cause mortality over pre-war levels. The age–sex distribution of homicides resembles UN-IGME profiles from past genocides, indicating broad, life-course-wide impacts with severe consequences for surviving households. Our 2025 extension incorporates newly released casualty updates to track the ongoing trajectory of LE and mortality. Rather than emphasizing methods, the presentation focuses on what these figures mean: lifespans compressed, kin networks disrupted, and a lasting burden of bereavement. Making the estimates and their uncertainty explicit supports protection efforts, informs recovery discussions, and preserves a public record commensurate with the scale of harm.
The war in Gaza has produced one of the steepest short-term reversals in population health on record. Building on our recently published work, we update life expectancy (LE) and mortality through December 2024 and extend results to September 2025 using the same transparent, reproducible framework and updated casualty series. In the first year of the war (October 2023–September 2024), LE at birth in Gaza fell to 29.3 years (26.8–31.7), a 62% loss relative to a no-conflict counterfactual. By December 31, 2024, we estimate 78,318 conflict deaths (70,614–87,504) and a 14-fold increase in all-cause mortality over pre-war levels. The age–sex distribution of homicides resembles UN-IGME profiles from past genocides, indicating broad, life-course-wide impacts with severe consequences for surviving households. Our 2025 extension incorporates newly released casualty updates to track the ongoing trajectory of LE and mortality. Rather than emphasizing methods, the presentation focuses on what these figures mean: lifespans compressed, kin networks disrupted, and a lasting burden of bereavement. Making the estimates and their uncertainty explicit supports protection efforts, informs recovery discussions, and preserves a public record commensurate with the scale of harm.