This is the main thesis of research conducted jointly between Abel Escribà-Folch, professor of the Department of Political and Social Sciences at Pompeu Fabra University, and Daniel Krcmaric, professor of Political Science at Northwestern University, recently published in the online version of the University of Chicago’s The Journal of Politics.

In their study, the authors collected data on the destinations of all dictators to going into political exile since 1946, after the end of World War II.

They document nearly 100 cases and analyse the reasons behind their destinations. The data show that 52 countries have hosted at least one dictator, and that the main recipients have been the United States, Britain, Russia, Argentina and France.

Their research shows that, over time, dictators are less likely to go into exile. The end of the Cold War eliminated the incentives of the major powers to give shelter to deposed rulers from all over the world. The influence of international justice has also increased, which is exemplified by the launch in 2002 of the International Criminal Court, the first permanent criminal court in the world. More than 120 states belong to this organization and have a legal obligation to arrest any person on their territory who has been accused by the Court.

This means that dictators cannot be sure that if they leave power their safety will be guaranteed in another country, as part of a regime transition, and the credibility of the foreign protection diminishes. With no clear and attractive option of exile, persecuted and unpopular rulers do not take the risk and have more incentives to hold on to power, which favours the prolongation of conflicts and civil wars.

Other factors influencing exile           

Among the factors that influence where autocratic rulers fleeing abroad take refuge after expulsion, the study highlights especially three different types: transnational ties, geographic proximity, and the various characteristics of potential host countries.

Dictators are more likely to go into exile in neighbouring states; countries with colonial ties, formal military alliances and economic ties; countries that have hosted other dictators in the past and are militarily powerful. By contrast, fleeing dictators tend to avoid democratic states (unless the democracy is an ally in power) and countries experiencing civil conflict.

Despite the downward trend in the number of exiles detected by the authors, there are other factors that determine this. Thus, patterns of exile depend mainly on the leaders’ past behaviour: since the late 1990s it is far less likely that guilty autocrats, that is, who are responsible for mass atrocities during their rule, will go into exile, whereas non-guilty leaders still go into exile as frequently as previously. Lacking good options, guilty dictators today tend to fight in longer civil wars (for example, Gaddafi in Libya and al-Assad in Syria).

However, this increasing global responsibility in today’s world also entails a benefit: leaders now know that violating human rights narrows down their future options, so international justice can create a deterrent effect.

Examples of exile and new avenues of research

This research studies numerous cases, since 1945, in terms of number of cases of exile, making it the second most common post-power fate for dictators. The United States helped the Philippine president Ferdinand Marcos to obtain luxurious exile in Hawaii in 1986; that same year, French and American diplomats convinced the corrupt and violent leader of Haiti, Jean-Claude Duvalier, to cede power in exchange for exile on the French Riviera.

The bloodthirsty Ugandan leader, Idi Amin, fled first to Libya and then Saudi Arabia; the Zairian, Mobutu Sese Seko, to Morocco;  Charles Taylor, of Liberia, moved to Nigeria; and more recently, on 21 January 2017, the defeated president of Gambia Yaha Jammeh, went in to exile in Equatorial Guinea, which had offered him refuge.

This study opens the door to future research to analyse how the availability and guarantees of exile can influence the strategies and policies of leaders, or even the fact that the rebels are encouraged (or not) when fighting against dictators.

Reference article: Abel Escribà-Folch, Daniel Krcmaric (January 2017): “Dictators in Exile: Explaining the Destinations of Ex-Rulers”. The Journal of Politics, DOI: 10.1086/688225