Albert Prades-Colomé es investigador permanente en el CRES-UPF y profesor asociado en la Universitat Pompeu Fabra y en el Tecnocampus-UPF. Actualmente está cursando el Doctorado Industrial en Biomedicina de la AGAUR, en el que participan el Departamento de Derechos Sociales e Inclusión, el Departamento de Empresa del TecnoCampus, el programa de doctorado en Biomedicina del Departamento de Medicina y Ciencias de la Vida y el CRES de la UPF.

El próximo 6 de marzo presentará un seminario sobre su investigación más reciente: Too Hot to Cope? The Role of Long-Term Care Against Heatwave Health Risks, coautorada con Helena M. Hernández-Pizarro.

Diapositivas disponibles en: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/m8v62wg5er8rvcr0vqra1/CRES_SEMINAR-06_03.pdf?rlkey=67ev5yk5cmytjdzokl5nzrna2&st=6w2nkp0t&dl=0

https://upf-edu.zoom.us/j/97935425654
979 3542 5654

Abstract:

Background. Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. Heatwaves increases mortality risks, especially among frail older adults. Mediterranean regions like Catalonia (Spain), which combines a rapidly ageing population with rising episodes of extreme heat, face a particularly pressing challenge. Among the elderly, individuals with long-term care need could be one of the most (if not the most) vulnerable group under extreme heat episodes. Providing LTC is expected to offer protection during heatwaves through basic cooling and safety measures. Yet, empirical evidence on the effectiveness of different LTC  in reducing heat-related mortality during these episodes is lacking.
Objectives. This study examines the differential impact of different LTC (institutional vs home-based) on mortality among older adults with advanced long-term care needs during heatwaves.
Method. We link individual-level administrative data covering all persons aged 60 and older with LTC Grade II or III in Catalonia (2015–2024; N = 182,221) to daily meteorological data across 14 climatic regions. Heatwaves are defined as periods of at least two consecutive days with regional maximum temperatures above the historical 95th percentile during the warm season (May 15th-October 15th). Using individual-day panel data, we estimate fixed-effects regression models that compare mortality risks across care settings during heatwaves and up to 5 and 10 days post-exposure, controlling for time-varying individual characteristics, climatic conditions, and unobserved individual heterogeneity. We further explore heterogeneous effects by sex, socioeconomic status, and marital status.
Results. Heatwave exposure significantly increases mortality among individuals with LTC needs, with effects that persist in the days following exposure. Being in a residential care facility is associated with a significantly larger increase in heat-related mortality compared to receiving care at home. This differential effect grows with longer post-exposure windows and remains robust across alternative heatwave definitions, model specifications, and the exclusion of the COVID-19 period. Heterogeneity analyses show that the excess risk associated with residential care is consistent across demographic and socioeconomic subgroups.
Conclusions. Residential long-term care does increase heat-related mortality risks for older adults under current conditions in Catalonia. These findings highlight structural vulnerabilities in residential care systems and underscore the need to integrate climate adaptation measures into long-term care policy. As heatwaves become more frequent, strengthening institutional resilience will be critical to protecting ageing populations.