The DemoSoc seminars at Universitat Pompeu Fabra aims to gather all researchers at UPF and beyond working on the fields of demography and sociology (social stratification).

The next DemoSoc Seminar of this course will take place on:

December, 3rd

12.00 h 

20.283 (Jaume I)

Multimorbidity Dynamics in Catalonia, 2010-2021: a Population-Based Cohort Study

Iñaki Permanyer, Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics, will be in charge of leading the session

Abstract: With rising life expectancy, multimorbidity and its associated burden is an increasingly important challenge for current and prospective health care systems. Using primary care electronic health records, we describe trends in prevalence and incidence of multimorbidity across socioeconomic groups in Catalonia, a region in Spain with 8 million inhabitants. We use a random sample of 1,551,126 individuals, including more than 22% of the Catalan population, who are followed from 2010 until 2021 after a five-year washout period. We document age- and sex-specific prevalence and incidence of basic (two or more conditions) and complex multimorbidity (three or more chronic conditions affecting at least three body systems) stratifying by income groups. We use logistic regression models to estimate the association between multimorbidity and mortality. 

Between 2010 and 2021, the prevalence of multimorbidity (both basic and complex) has increased for both sexes and all cohorts in our analysis. Importantly, each cohort attains the same ages with higher multimorbidity prevalence than their predecessors did 10 years ago. Older generations are mostly affected by degenerative diseases, while younger ones are more affected by mental health problems. In addition, the prevalence of multimorbidity is higher among women. Incidence tends to vary considerably across generations, with higher levels occurring among the older ones. We observe a strong socioeconomic gradient, with lower income individuals experiencing worse outcomes in multimorbidity prevalence and incidence. Such gradient is persistent and even becomes more pronounced at the end of the study period. Across all age groups, individuals experiencing complex multimorbidity are at a higher risk of dying than those who do not. The documented increases in multimorbidity alongside with its socioeconomic gradients suggest that preventive strategies are urgently needed to defer or prevent its onset and slow its progression – especially among younger generations.