24/10/24 - (Video available) Inaugural lesson Master in Sociology and Demography: Fabrizio Bernardi (Professor of Sociology at UNED)
24/10/24 - (Video available) Inaugural lesson Master in Sociology and Demography: Fabrizio Bernardi (Professor of Sociology at UNED)
07.11.2024
Inaugural lecture of the Research Master in Sociology and Demography
“Luck and educational attainment: An empirical approximation using variance function regressions”
Speaker: Fabrizio Bernardi, professor of Sociology at the National Distance Education University (UNED) in Madrid
Date: October 24, 2024
Time: 11.00 am
Sala de Graus Albert Calsamiglia (Campus Ciutadella)
Title: "Luck and educational attainment: An empirical approximation using variance function regressions"
Abstract: "Approximately 50 years ago, Jencks and colleagues proposed that luck might explain some of the unexplained variance in status attainment models, a notion that faced significant opposition and remains underexplored. This paper builds on Jencks's intuition by addressing two main questions: 1) Can we quantify the role of luck in socioeconomic outcomes using the status attainment framework? and 2) Is luck particularly important for higher educational attainment among individuals from disadvantaged backgrounds? Drawing on philosophical work, we differentiate between three types of luck: constitutive (luck in who we are), circumstantial (luck in where and when we live), and chancy (luck in what happens to us). While existing sociological research measures constitutive and circumstantial luck, chancy luck is harder to quantify. We propose that unexplained variance in educational attainment can act as a proxy for chancy luck and explore its interaction with social class of origin. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health), which includes genetic and status attainment variables, we apply variance function regressions (VFR) to analyze educational attainment. VFR models enable us to separately assess the impact of correlates on both the average and variance of educational outcomes. We construct an indicator of educational propensity based on constitutive and circumstantial luck, incorporating variables like polygenic scores, family structure, and place of birth. We then examine how this indicator affects both the average and variance in years of education and its interaction with family socioeconomic status (SES). Our key hypothesis is that unexplained variance in educational outcomes will be greater among students with high educational propensity from low SES backgrounds, indicating that their educational achievements are more influenced by random events. Our results support this hypothesis, suggesting that educational trajectories for low SES individuals are indeed more fragile and dependent on strokes of luck.
Short bio: Fabrizio Bernardi is an Italian sociologist and social demographer. He is full professor of Sociology at the National Distance Education University (UNED) in Madrid. He is editor in chief of European Sociological Review. His substantive research focuses on inequality, social mobility, compensatory advantage and family dynamics."