Job market candidate
Tel. +34 93 542 2685
Available for Interviews at :
European Job Market for Economists (EEA), December 6-7, Naples, Italy
Allied Social Science Associations (ASSA), January 4-6, Atlanta, US
Macroeconomics. Monetary Economics. Time Series Econometrics.
"The Government Spending Multiplier at the Zero Lower Bound" (Job Market Paper)
I estimate a time-varying structural VAR to study the effects of government spending shocks on a number of U.S. macroeconomic variables. In contrast to the predictions of the standard New-Keynesian models, I find no significant changes in the size of the government spending multiplier when the federal funds rate hits the Zero Lower bound (ZLB). I propose a theoretical model where the central bank, through either conventional or unconventional policies, directly controls the market interest rate, and where the policy rule parameters are subject to regime switches to capture potential changes due to the ZLB constraint. The model estimates suggest that the behavior of the market interest rate was not much affected by the ZLB constraint, and thus the government spending multiplier remained largely unaltered.
Research Papers in Progress
“The Time-Varying Effect of Unconventional Monetary Policy”, with Francesca Loria (Fed Board), Carlos Montes-Galdón (ECB) and Donghai Zhang (Bonn).
We investigate whether forward guidance has a time-varying effect on economic fundamentals, and whether forward guidance shocks at different horizons have different impacts on economic activities. First, we argue that high-frequency identified monetary policy surprises are contaminated by asymmetric information between the central bank and the private sector. Second, we propose a strategy to overcome this issue. Third, we study the time-varying effect of forward guidance shocks using a time-varying coefficients and the stochastic volatility VARX model, in which our cleaned measure is integrated as an exogenous variable. Finally, within the context of a particular application, we show how to impose sign restrictions on the impact impulse responses to exogenous variables by using a constrained Kalman filter in the estimation of our empirical model.
“An Empirical Assessment of Central Banks' Preferences”, with Donghai Zhang (Bonn).