CV - Job Market Paper  
 

Gutiérrez, Ángelo

Contact Information

Tel. +34 93 542 2688

[email protected]

 

Personal Webpage

 

Available for interviews at

European Job Market for Economists (EEA)

Allied Social Science Associations (ASSA)

 

 

 

Research interests

Macroeconomics, Expectation Formation and Computational Economics

Placement Officer

Libertad González
[email protected]
 

References

Jordi Galí(Advisor)
[email protected]

Davide Debortoli (Advisor)
[email protected]

Jose Apesteguia
[email protected]

 

Research

"Business Cycles when Consumers Learn by Shopping” (Job Market Paper)
I present a theory where consumers learn about individual prices and aggregate inflation using their shopping experiences, that is, they learn by shopping. I show that this information friction alone allows exogenous shifts in aggregate demand to drive the business cycle. Learning by shopping operates through three different channels that simultaneously generate cyclical markups, endogenous inflation persistence, and a labor wedge driving comovement between inflation and output. Rational inattention disciplines the strength of this information friction by mapping consumers’ perceptions about prices to the structural features of the economy. I exploit this link to calibrate the model using recent evidence on the effect of information treatments on consumers’ attention to prices and their beliefs about inflation. A counterfactual exercise suggests that the change in the monetary policy stance after Volcker’s appointment as Fed Chairman can fully account for the fall in volatility and persistence of U.S. inflation over the last decades. It also explains the disconnect between the inflation expectations of consumers and those of professional forecasters. However, the policy change also had an unintended consequence: It made the economy more vulnerable to aggregate demand shocks.

"Firm Debt Deflation, Household Precautionary Savings, and the Amplification of Aggregate Shocks” (with A. Caggese and A. Perez-Orive)
Shocks that cause household deleveraging and credit shocks to firms interact and greatly amplify each other, even when these same shocks separately have moderate effects on output and employment. This result is obtained in a model in which heterogeneous households face financial frictions and unemployment risk and in which heterogeneous firms borrow funds using nominally fixed long-term debt and face costly bankruptcy. This novel amplification mechanism is based on a dynamic feedback between the precautionary behavior of households and firms. Furthermore, our results support the view that firm financial frictions are important to understand the effect of household deleveraging on unemployment, consistent with recent empirical studies examining the 2007-2009 Great Recession.

"Random Models For The Joint Treatment of Risk And Time Preferences” (with J. Apesteguia and M.A. Ballester)
The aim of this paper is to develop a simple, tractable and theoretically sound stochastic framework to deal with heterogeneous risk and time preferences. This we do in three steps: (i) study the comparative statics of the main deterministic model of risk and time preferences, the discounted expected utility, (ii) embed the model and its comparative statics within the random utility framework, and (iii) illustrate the empirical implementation of the model using several experimental datasets. The solidity of the proposed framework and its effectiveness in delivering novel methodological and empirical results of interest for the understanding of risk and time preferences are demonstrated throughout.

 

Research Papers in Progress

“Rationally Inattentive Inflation Expectations"
In this project, I propose a model of expectation formation based on shopping experiences. In the model, households acquire information about prices while shopping and use this information to form beliefs about current and future aggregate inflation. Obtaining information is costly, and shoppers choose it optimally to trade its costs and benefits. The model makes predictions relating household’s characteristics with their shopping experiences and their beliefs about aggregate inflation. I test these predictions using microdata from the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations and find evidence supporting the model’s predictions. First, households’ expectations about aggregate inflation respond systematically to their expectations about individual prices, and the strength of this response is proportional to the expenditure share of that good. Second, individual forecasts about prices are predicted by past forecasts after controlling extensively for sources of public information. Third, households that spend more on goods like gasoline are relatively better forecasting the price of those goods.